Fact check: Republicans claim that crime in Democrat run cities are going up.

[AgnosticBoy]

Edited on 10/29/2022...
I amended debate question 2.

I watch Fox News at times, and it is common for their reporters to claim that crime is increasing in Democrat run cities. Here's how one US Congressmen puts it:

In 2020, Democrats fully embraced the radical “defund the police” movement. I and many of my Republican colleagues warned against the enactment of these extreme policies. As predicted, the results have been disastrous. Crime has spiked, officers have left their jobs, and criminals now have greater control over the streets.

“Defund the police” was more than just a catchphrase for the radical left. Democratic cities across the country reduced funding for their police forces over the past two years. Minneapolis, which saw some of the year’s most violent riots, cut its police budget by $8 million. Los Angeles slashed police funding by $150 million, and New York City shrank the NYPD’s budget by $1 billion. As a result, 14 major Democrat-run cities saw their highest homicide levels on record in 2021. The upward trend has not stopped. Fox News recently analyzed data from seven major cities and found that this year, violent crimes have increased up to 40% over 2021. The increase has been particularly pronounced in New York City and Seattle, two cities that were on the leading edge of the “defund the police” movement. Though, it’s not just homicide rates that are up. Carjackings have become commonplace in many cities, and major increases in organized retail theft have left business owners struggling, frustrated, and feeling abandoned by local leaders.

Democrats are blaming everyone except their own policies for the drastic increase in violent crimes. Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot blamed retailers for the smash-and-grabs, admonishing them for failing to lock down merchandise. Former White House press secretary Jen Psaki claimed that the pandemic was the source of the crime surge, while Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) flatly denied that retail crime was increasing. And Rep. Cori Bush (D-MS), one of the first Democrats to call for defunding the police, responded to rising crime by spending over $300,000 in campaign funds for her own private security force. Regular people, though, know that Democratic policies are the source of the crime spike, and by wide margins, the public trusts Republicans to restore law and order.

Here's some reporting from Fox News:

For Debate:
1. Is crime increasing in Democrat run cities, like New York cities, Los Angeles, Chicago, etc?
2. Are the policies of Democrats causing this increase in crime? If so, which policies?

 

[Multicolored Lemur]

Here in Houston . . . just wild blue yonder urban legend!

At a suburban [mostly Caucasian] early voting spot, the volunteers for two different County Commissioner spots are talking like, Oh, people commit crimes and judges let them out same day! As if they’re painting an picture, I guess, of African-American judges being in favor of young people committing crimes.

No, I don’t think a middle-aged African-American judge is in favor of young people committing crimes, in fact, quite the opposite.

And true, our legal system does put a lot of people out on bail, but that has nothing to do with Democrat or Republican.

And maybe, if you looked really hard, you could find an egregious case of a judge acting outside the norm and letting a clearly dangerous person out on bail. But these candidates and their volunteers aren’t even looking for these egregious cases. They’re just making these claims whole cloth and playing off people’s fears, stereotypes and everything else.

 

[AgnosticBoy]

I amended the second debate question in the OP. Responding to one of Lemur's points...

At a suburban [mostly Caucasian] early voting spot, the volunteers for two different County Commissioner spots are talking like, Oh, people commit crimes and judges let them out same day!

And true, our legal system does put a lot of people out on bail, but that has nothing to do with Democrat or Republican.

Speaking of bail, Republicans have claimed that bail reform is the cause of increased crime rates. Here's a sample of their arguments:
New York’s “no bail” reforms keep producing rank injustice — and making the city markedly less safe.

Judge Denise Johnson just cut loose reputed gang member Takim Newson, 32, who had more than 20 priors and stands charged with attempted murder and related crimes.
...
Despite his long history of crime, Johnson ordered him released without bail pending another court appearance June 9. Said one outraged cop: “How can this be normal? Is this what criminal-justice reform is supposed to look like?”

Yet it’s the new normal in New York.

-New York Post

Hundreds of looters and rioters arrested by the New York Police Department over the past several days have been immediately released due to the state's new bail-reform law that some say is turning the criminal justice process into a mockery and threatening public safety.

New York City police chief Terrance Monahan said "just about all" of the looters arrested will be released without bail.

Frustrated law enforcement officials across the state say repeat offenders are getting bolder by the day and claim the state's policy gives lawbreakers the green light to commit crimes without consequences.

Louis Turco, head of the Lieutenants Benevolent Association, said the violence seen during the demonstrations in New York is the byproduct of the new law that requires defendants to be released without cash bail on a long list of misdemeanors and some felonies including arson and burglary.

"This has been put in motion by our politicians that have allowed the criminal element to feel as if there's no consequences for any crime that you do and now you've seen this coming out," Turco told The Washington Post. "...Now they go home and tell all their friends, 'Listen, I got out the next day and nothing's going to happen to me.'"

- Fox News

Here are some counterarguments/responses:

Until recently, jurisdictions across the United States saw growing support for reforms to the pretrial system. There was broad recognition that mass, pretrial incarceration was driven by archaic cash bail systems, causing a variety of negative consequences for individuals and communities

However, rising crime rates and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic changed the national narrative around cash bail reform. Violent crime has been rising across the country since 2020, primarily driven by greater gun violence.4 These concerning trends are taking place in cities and towns nationwide, regardless of their history with cash bail reform. Although there is no evidence linking cash bail reform to high crime rates—and a plethora of evidence to the contrary5—cash bail reform has become an easy target for politicians looking to demonstrate they are taking action to address violent crime.6

- Center For American Progress

Experts, politicians and pundits have provided different theories as to why, after decades of a downward trend in overall crime, certain violent crimes are on the rise in cities across the country. While many point to the pandemic and the economic collapse that followed, some have focused on more specific aspects of the criminal justice system, and in particular some recent efforts to reform it.

Bail reforms – which generally focus on removing or limiting the use of cash bail against defendants who are accused of misdemeanors or nonviolent offenses – aim at making sure most defendants are not held in jail while awaiting trial solely because they cannot afford cash bail.

Facts First: There’s no clear evidence linking bail reforms – which have been in place for years in some cities – to the recent rise in violent crimes. In fact, the majority of cities that have seen increases in crime have not eliminated cash bail. Many variables have contributed to the increases Graham is referencing but CNN has seen no evidence to suggest that bail reform is a major factor.

However, the increase in crime has occurred in cities across the country, not just those with bail reform measures. According to a report from the Major Cities Chiefs Association, out of the 66 largest police jurisdictions, 63 saw an increase in at least one category of violent crimes in 2020, CNN reported.

The vast majority of these cities have not passed reforms eliminating bail.

- CNN

 

[Multicolored Lemur]

https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2022-10-22/is-crime-up-or-down-in-houston-concerns-are-hard-to-allay?context=amp

“ . . September statistics showed a 3% drop in homicides and a 10% drop in overall violent crime compared with the same month last year, as Houston Police Chief Troy Finner pointed out at a town hall . . ”

“ . . similar discussions around the country on public safety as violent crime rates appear to have stabilized somewhat but still sit above pre-pandemic levels. . ”

“ . . From 2019 to 2021, homicides in the county increased 59%, with most cases in Houston, according to state data. However, other crimes — burglary, robbery and larceny — were down the past two years. . ”

============

Ouch.

I’m glad things have leveled off in the last year, and even slightly decreased. But a 60% increase of homicides during the Pandemic, that’s really bad.

I’m glad other crimes were down, but homicides are the most important.