What would be considered a a "win" for NATO/Ukraine in the Russia vs. Ukraine conflict?

[AgnosticBoy]

In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Most agree that Russia is in the wrong. But what I question is if the West is in it to win seeing that they have not been fully invested in defeating Russia, and by that I mean we have not given Ukraine all of the resources that we can, including NATO boots on Ukranian soil.

I presume that NATO wants to win. I presume that they truly believe that they can win. So what is the winning strategy? Is it reasonable?

Personally, I think it's unrealistic that Putin will leave Crimea. So let's discuss.

For Debate:
1. Do you believe NATO and/or Ukraine can win in any way against Russia?
2. What would defeating or winning against Russia look like? Total withdrawal of Russian military from Ukraine?

 

[AgnosticBoy]

Here's a more diplomatic route although I'm hesitant to call it a win...

In a letter sent to Biden on Monday, the group of 30 Democrats praise Biden’s efforts to date at supporting Ukraine while avoiding direct US involvement on the ground. But they suggest a more forceful attempt at bringing the war to an end through diplomacy is necessary to prevent a long and slogging conflict.

“Given the destruction created by this war for Ukraine and the world, as well as the risk of catastrophic escalation, we also believe it is in the interests of Ukraine, the United States, and the world to avoid a prolonged conflict,” the group, led by Congressional Progressive Caucus chairwoman Pramila Jayapal, write in the letter. “For this reason, we urge you to pair the military and economic support the United States has provided to Ukraine with a proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic framework for a ceasefire.”

In Congress, questions have grown at the willingness of lawmakers to sustain the massive financial and military support that has gone to Ukraine. Some Republicans have threatened to cut aid to the country if they take control of Congress in November.

The liberal Democrats, in their letter, say that more direct attempts at engaging Moscow in diplomacy were necessary as the war drags on.

- CNN

 

[Multicolored Lemur]

We might need to find a way for Russia to save face.

And that might really stick in people’s craw in a major way. It might stick in my craw, for Russia is the clear bully against a smaller nation.

But . . .

But—

It might be the only way.

 

[AgnosticBoy]

We might need to find a way for Russia to save face.

And that might really stick in people’s craw in a major way. It might stick in my craw, for Russia is the clear bully against a smaller nation.

But . . .

But—

It might be the only way.

Very true. A common point I keep hearing from American military officials in response to how the war will end is to put the onus on Russia. They'll usually say that it is Russia's fault and that they can end it by just leaving Ukraine.

I don't think the blame game is enough here other than to spark moral outrage. Sure, Russia is in the wrong, but I question how international condemnation is going to get them to stop. Hasn't worked thus far and there doesn't seem to be an end in sight by just doing that. I wanna say a concrete signed deal for Ukraine to not join NATO would do it, but then again I doubt Ukraine would ever trust Russia not to invade again even if they promised not to join NATO.

 

[AgnosticBoy]

Here's some recent analysis on the war that I agree with.. from US General Milley:

Milley also said there is a chance for talks on ending the war, and that military victory may not be possible for either Russia or Ukraine.

"There has to be a mutual recognition that military victory is probably in the true sense of the word maybe not achievable through military means, and therefore you need to turn to other means," Milley said.

"There's... an opportunity here, a window of opportunity for negotiation."

- France24

Like General Milley, I don't believe that Ukraine can defeat Russia through military means nor do I believe that Russia can defeat Ukraine in a ground war given their limited number of soldiers on the ground. Russia would have to resort to WMDs and/or indiscriminate missile strikes to win. If General Milley is correct, then the US should not be pushing for Ukraine to keep fighting a war that they can not win, unless the Ukrainians don't care and would rather die fighting rather than to cede any ground to Russia.

 

[AgnosticBoy]

This is damning US intelligence leak regarding Ukraine's ability to win the war...

The White House on Friday worked to tamp down suggestions that it believes Ukraine is on a losing path in its ongoing war against Russia after a damning report based on a leaked U.S. intelligence assessment indicated the U.S. believes Kyiv’s counteroffensive is doomed to failure.

“I will say that over the course of the past two years, there have been a lot of analyses of how this war would unfold coming from a lot of quarters,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters...

Sullivan’s comments come after The Washington Post reported the conclusion, based on the intelligence assessment and statements from officials speaking on the condition of anonymity, that Ukraine does not have the resources or manpower to achieve its principal goals in its months-long counteroffensive – principally to break through Russia’s deeply entrenched front lines and cut off its land bridge to the Crimean Peninsula.

Hodges, like others who have offered vocal support for the government of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has criticized the Biden administration for not offering more sophisticated missile systems, warplanes like the F-16 and other weapons that could give Kyiv an edge – but have also raised apparent alarm in the White House over fears of escalating the conflict with Russia.

- US News

What stands out to me in this article is that Ukraine lacks "manpower". That seems to be the one thing that they might run out of before Russia does, esp. effective manpower. It's one thing to run low on military equipment and have that replaced by Western allies. But one thing they can't replace is manpower since no other country has volunteered to send troops to Ukraine.


And here's a short analysis about how or why the West supporting Ukraine in a half-assed way plays right into Putin's goal...

The delays and excuses about sending Ukraine high-performance aircraft, tanks, missiles and other weapons represent a major reason the Russians had the time and freedom to build formidable defensive lines, whose potency we are now seeing. They also arguably facilitate Russian President Vladimir Putin’s dreams of outlasting Kyiv, because they confirm his belief that the West is not solidly behind Ukraine and will eventually tire of supporting it.

- The Hill