And this is the general idea, that an older civilization would have plenty of time of colonize the Milky Way Galaxy. And yet we see no evidence of this.
The Fermi Paradox, and growth of urban legend (“better” retellings)
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And this is the general idea, that an older civilization would have plenty of time of colonize the Milky Way Galaxy. And yet we see no evidence of this.
Laura and Enrico Fermi
Fermi was a physicist who had one time worked at Los Alamos — the site in the United States where the atomic bomb was developed.
Anyway, there was a casual conversation at lunch one day (or a couple of days) about the possibility of space travel and aliens.
And this is where the paradox gets its name.
30+ years later, a guy tracked down the other three participants in this conversation. Fermi himself had died as a middle-aged man.
Edward Teller
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''Where is everybody. '' An account of Fermi's question (Technical Report) | OSTI.GOV
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—> on desktop, small green button toward left, and yes, can be a little slow.
The original conversation was in 1950.
Teller much later wrote on Aug. 13, 1984:
“ . . . and I think he directed it at me, ‘Edward, what do you think. How probable is it that within the next ten years we shall have clear evidence of a material object moving faster than light?‘ I remember that my answer was ‘10 ^ -6’ [ten to the minus six, or one out a million]. Fermi said, ‘This is much too low. The probability is more like ten percent’ (the well known figure for a Fermi miracle). . . ”
Only Teller remembers the specific number Fermi put on the chance of faster-than-light travel (for an object, not necessarily a craft).
And,
“ . . We then talked about other things which I do not remember and maybe approximately eight of us sat down together for lunch. . ”
The other two guys remember just the three of them plus Fermi, so Teller is probably blurring a couple of conversations together.
I mean, the guy is trying to remember something from 34 years ago, and on a topic not centrally connected to his work, so no wonder! I think we should probably cut him some slack and realize that it’s going to be imprecise.
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Herbert York
on Sept. 11, 1984, he wrote:
“ . . He [Fermi] then followed up with a series of calculations on the probability of earthlike planets, the probability of life given an earth, the probability of humans given life, the likely rise and duration of high technology, and so on. He concluded on the basis of such calculations that we ought to have been visited long ago and many times over. . ”
This is the heart of the Fermi Paradox, and yet only Herb York puts it this clearly and in this much detail.
Emil Konopinski
On Oct. 17, 1984, he wrote:
“ . . This immediately brought to my mind a cartoon . . . the New Yorker . . . a flying saucer sitting in the background . . ”
Of the three men, only Emil remembers the cartoon.
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My point being, the vast majority of the summaries of the Fermi Paradox include the cartoon, even though only one guy remembers it.
It’s like they’re taking the “hottest” details and putting them together in a mish-mash.
It’s like they’re taking the “hottest” details and putting them together in a mish-mash.
Eric M. Jones first wrote to Teller,
then to York, also sending a copy of Teller’s letter,
then to Konopinski, sending copies of both Teller and York’s letters.
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To Konopinski, Jones wrote: “Do you remember the incident? If so, I would greatly appreciate a written account which I would use along with York's and Teller's (copies enclosed) in composing a ‘true’ version of the Fermi Story. The composite will appear in the proceedings of a conference called ‘Interstellar Migration and the Human Experience’ to be published by the University of California Press in September 1985.”
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And I would suggest that this is how at least some scripture is written.
Notably the four gospels of the New Testament. Mark was written first. And then both Matthew and Luke were based on Mark and a lost writing of some of sayings of Jesus called Q (from Quelle in the German language, meaning source). This is also called the Two-Source Hypothesis.
then to York, also sending a copy of Teller’s letter,
then to Konopinski, sending copies of both Teller and York’s letters.
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To Konopinski, Jones wrote: “Do you remember the incident? If so, I would greatly appreciate a written account which I would use along with York's and Teller's (copies enclosed) in composing a ‘true’ version of the Fermi Story. The composite will appear in the proceedings of a conference called ‘Interstellar Migration and the Human Experience’ to be published by the University of California Press in September 1985.”
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And I would suggest that this is how at least some scripture is written.
Notably the four gospels of the New Testament. Mark was written first. And then both Matthew and Luke were based on Mark and a lost writing of some of sayings of Jesus called Q (from Quelle in the German language, meaning source). This is also called the Two-Source Hypothesis.
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The emotional core of the Fermi Paradox is the conversation moving on to other topics and Enrico Fermi suddenly blurting out.
Eric Jones (who wasn't there) wrote to Teller:
"The way the story is being told these days is that the lunchtime conversation turned to the possibility of interstellar travel and/or signaling. Fermi became engrossed in a quick calculation and then announced: 'If you are right, then where is everybody?' The implication of the question is that if interstellar travel is feasible, then the Galaxy would have been filled long ago by beings who originated somewhere else."
So, this was the state of the rumor (and/or repeated retelling) in 1984.
"The way the story is being told these days is that the lunchtime conversation turned to the possibility of interstellar travel and/or signaling. Fermi became engrossed in a quick calculation and then announced: 'If you are right, then where is everybody?' The implication of the question is that if interstellar travel is feasible, then the Galaxy would have been filled long ago by beings who originated somewhere else."
So, this was the state of the rumor (and/or repeated retelling) in 1984.
the first guy Edward Teller wrote:
"The discussion had nothing to do with astronomy or with extraterrestrial beings. I think it was some down-to-earth topic. Then, in the middle of this conversation, Fermi came out with the quite unexpected question 'Where is everybody ?' What I am sure of is that your quote, 'If you are right, then where is everybody?', is wrong. Fermi did not tie his question to any conversation which was then going on. The result of his question was general laughter because of the strange fact that in spite of Fermi’s question coming from the clear blue, everybody around the table seemed to understand at once that he was talking about extraterrestrial life."
"The discussion had nothing to do with astronomy or with extraterrestrial beings. I think it was some down-to-earth topic. Then, in the middle of this conversation, Fermi came out with the quite unexpected question 'Where is everybody ?' What I am sure of is that your quote, 'If you are right, then where is everybody?', is wrong. Fermi did not tie his question to any conversation which was then going on. The result of his question was general laughter because of the strange fact that in spite of Fermi’s question coming from the clear blue, everybody around the table seemed to understand at once that he was talking about extraterrestrial life."
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